{"id":331,"date":"2019-01-29T12:56:21","date_gmt":"2019-01-29T09:26:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/?p=331"},"modified":"2019-01-29T12:56:21","modified_gmt":"2019-01-29T09:26:21","slug":"the-one-that-knows-the-future-cant-lose-why-is-forecasting-important-part-of-your-business","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/2019\/01\/29\/the-one-that-knows-the-future-cant-lose-why-is-forecasting-important-part-of-your-business\/","title":{"rendered":"The one that knows the future can&#8217;t lose! Why is forecasting important part of your business?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There is a movie called\n Edge of tomorrow, it is an American SCi Fi movie starring Tom Cruise. \nThe film takes place in a future where Earth is invaded by an alien race\n with ability to manipulate and control the time &amp; Humans are \nfighting the enemy without knowing about this ability. There is a scene \nthat Emily Blunt which know about this ability explain it to Tom Cruise,\n she says below quote:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>An <em>enemy that knows the future can&#8217;t lose!!!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is a brilliant quote. imagine if you be able to know the future or\n predict it 100% accurate!!&nbsp;that would be a cool gift and just I am \ngetting really excited just by thinking about what can be done with that\n gift!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is a solid fact that many organizations have failed because of \nlack of forecasting or faulty forecasting on which the planning was \nbased, as such in the operations of modern management, it is absolutely \nimportant &amp; necessary aid to forecast &amp; plan and proper \nforecasting is the backbone of&nbsp;any effective operations considering \ntoday`s competitive business environment &amp;&nbsp;lack of Economic \nstability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So I would like to translate above quote to below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The one that knows the future can&#8217;t lose!!!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course it is impossible to know the future &amp; also it is \nimpossible to predict it 100% accurate. But if you be able to predict it\n better than the others, then you would have an advantage compare to \nothers that makes you unbeatable &amp; successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Business world, forecasting is like predicting the future but not \nlike fortunetellers using Oracle or Tarot card decks :), The forecast \nis&nbsp;intelligent assumptions based on reliable data, proper market \nresearch and deep understanding the market &amp; believe me guys, not \neveryone can do it properly!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It takes years of experience &amp; many practice to learn and be come a master of this game changing advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;Forecast failure has so many casualties and so many people lost \ntheir jobs, many companies&nbsp;went under. The consequences of bad \nforecasting&nbsp;are really harsh and sometimes can destroy years of success \nswiftly and instantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just have look on following to see how important in this topic and \nwhat giants and idols died&nbsp;&amp; became Victim of bad Forecast:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Lehman Brothers<\/strong>: Was a global financial services \nfirm, Lehman was the fourth-largest investment bank in the United \nStates. On September 15, 2008, the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy \nprotection following the massive exodus of most of its clients, drastic \nlosses in its stock, and devaluation of assets by credit rating \nagencies. Lehman&#8217;s bankruptcy filing is the largest in US history. <strong>CEO : Richard S. Fuld, Jr.<\/strong>\n Fuld was nicknamed the &#8220;Gorilla&#8221; on Wall Street for his \ncompetitiveness. Fuld worked for Lehman for nearly 40 years served as \nCEO from 1994 through the firm&#8217;s collapse in 2008, Fuld was the \nlongest-tenured CEO on Wall Street.&nbsp;Fuld had steered Lehman through the \n1997 Asian Financial Crisis, a period where the firm&#8217;s share price \ndropped to $22 in 1998. Lehman had a yearly loss of $102 million in \n1993, but after Fuld became CEO the firm had fourteen straight years of \nprofits, including one of $4.2 billion in 2007. <strong><em>Fuld ranked \nnumber one on their Worst American CEOs of All Time list &amp; was also \nnamed in Time magazine&#8217;s list of &#8220;25 People to Blame for the Financial \nCrisis&#8221;<\/em><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Walgreens :&nbsp;<\/strong>Largest drug retailing chain in the United States. The company operated 8,217 stores in all 50 states. <strong>EVP and CFO : Wade Miquelon &#8211; <\/strong>The\n reason for Wade Miquelon\u2019s recent, sudden departure from Walgreens,was a\n drastically wrong financial forecast. Miquelon had forecast in April \nthat the drugstore chain\u2019s pharmacy division would show $8.5 billion in \nsales for fiscal-year 2016. Three months later, he reduced the forecast \nby somewhat more than a rounding error: $1.1 billion. <strong>So Forecasting Error Cost Walgreen\u2019s CFO His Job.<\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Hewlett Packard, SVP : Eric Cador &#8211; <\/strong>Confidence was\n running so high with Eric Cador. He was certain that HP\u2019s PC success \nwould translate to the tablet market.&nbsp;&#8220;In the PC world, with fewer ways \nof differentiating HP&#8217;s products from our competitors, we became No. 1; \nin the tablet world we&#8217;re going to become better than No. 1. We call it \nNo. 1-plus.&#8221; Not so much. In our review we panned the TouchPad&#8217;s \nsluggish performance, weak battery life and skimp app selection. HP \nwould kill off the TouchPad and all webOS hardware just 7 weeks later \nafter staggeringly weak sales he said.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>Bonus:<\/strong> From \nHP chairman Ray Lane in Sept 2011, after the Touchpad was discontinued: \n&#8220;You cannot develop serious portable applications on Android.\u201d<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Black Berry,<\/strong> <strong>CEO : Thorsten Heins &#8211;&nbsp;<\/strong>He\n stepped down as CEO of BB and was replaced by John S. Chen on November \n4, 2013. During his time as CEO, the company continued to struggle in a \nrapidly changing market. In 2012, Heins was named Cantech Letter\u2019s 2012 \nTSX Executive of the Year and ranked a year later as third on a list of \nthe worst CEOs of 2013.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>\u201cIn five years I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;ll be a reason to have a tablet anymore.\u201d&nbsp;<\/strong>said&nbsp;Heinsin 2013. Tablet sales are still very much on the demand&nbsp;&amp; growing.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Above are only some of many examples of Bad Forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So to sum up, Forecasting implies the act of making a detailed \nanalysis of the future and&nbsp;making intelligent assumptions which proper \nplanning is impossible without have an accurate Forecast. So the better \nyou forecast, you will have much better change of success in your \nbusiness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Always remember :&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The one that knows the future can&#8217;t lose!!!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I will try to write more about how to have proper &amp; accurate Forecasting in coming posts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cheers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Iman Soltani<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P.s: Reference : http:\/\/www.laptopmag.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a movie called Edge of tomorrow, it is an American SCi Fi movie starring Tom Cruise. The film takes place in a future where Earth is invaded by an alien race with ability to manipulate and control the time &amp; Humans are fighting the enemy without knowing about this ability. There is a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":332,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/331"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=331"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/331\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":333,"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/331\/revisions\/333"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/imansoltani.ir\/main\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}